ON HIS 3RD DEATH ANNIVERSARY

SAUDI RESHUFFLE IN D(IE)NYSTY

I believe strongly in the rights of women... my mother is a woman, my sister is a woman, my daughter is a woman, my wife is a woman. - King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia

In an unprecedented major move, Saudi King Salman has reshuffled the deck at the apex of the Kingdom’s power structure. The reshuffle has replaced Prince Muqrin, chosen as Crown Prince by the late King Abdullah before his death in January, with Interior Minister Mohammed bin Nayef, and appointed his young son, Defence Minister Mohammed bin Salman as the Deputy Crown Prince, or second in line of succession. Both men are relatively younger than the past octogenarian successors to the Kingdom’s founder King Abdulaziz al-Saud, comprising the generation of his (many) sons. That tradition gave Saudi Arabia five kings from amongst al-Saud’s sons. This reshuffle represents the transition to a new generation. Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the new Crown Prince, is the first grandson of founder King al-Saud. Given that Nayef is 55 and Mohammed bin Salman is just 30, the announcement appears to have settled the succession issue for decades to come. 

Not only that, power at the apex of the Saudi hierarchy now appears to be concentrated in the hands of the two Princes under King Salman. Their rise to power is seen to signal a tougher stance on foreign policy and continuing to keep the lid on domestic dissent. Prince Nayef has been Interior Minister since 2012, succeeding his father in that position. Al Qaeda paid him the ultimate compliment as a formidable enemy when they tried to assassinate him in 2009 when he was security chief. He escaped that attack and is seen as tough on internal dissent or attempts to subvert Saudi rule. Saudi Arabia clearly has an eye on the unprecedented turmoil roiling the region, with external challenges such as the intervention in Yemen and internal issues emanating from religious extremists’ attempts to overthrow Saudi rule in the past. 

The latest avatar of such extremists, Islamic State (IS), is said to be operating on Saudi soil. Recently, Riyadh announced it arrested 93 people suspected of being IS operatives. The tougher foreign policy of course is centred on the perceived growing Iranian influence in the region. In the Yemen context, the refusal of Pakistan to get involved militarily in the Saudi campaign, which has caused so much heartburn in Riyadh as well as other Gulf Cooperation Council allies, has now been translated into Pakistan offering humanitarian assistance for Yemen. Whether this will get Islamabad off the hook with Riyadh, only time will tell.

Apart from these two changes at the top, veteran Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal has been sidelined in favour of Saudi ambassador to Washington Adel al-Jubeir, the first non-royal to hold the post. Even the head of the state oil firm Aramco has been shifted to Health Minister. His successor is awaited with bated breath by the oil markets, given Saudi Arabia’s pre-eminent position as the world’s largest oil exporter. 

All these changes presage a more confrontational foreign policy, with Yemen as the testing ground of the new direction. Prince Mohammed bin Salman has led the aerial foray into Yemen against the Houthis but seems to have come up against the fact that mere air power cannot defeat the rebels. After Pakistan excusing itself, Saudi Arabia is now training tribesmen to fight the Houthis in a new proxy ground war that could escalate the conflict, possibly even over the border into Saudi Arabia itself. 

The new Saudi assertiveness may also be a ploy to divert attention from domestic tensions emanating not only from the extremist threat, but also the inherent contradiction between conservatives and modern young people who are dying for change. Unemployment amongst even the educated young is high and could become a destabilising factor in future. The transition may have settled the Saudi succession for the foreseeable future in an effort to ensure stability and smooth changes, but the concentration of power in the apex triumvirate and the more aggressive policeman’s role being assumed by Riyadh in the region is a risky enterprise fraught with many imponderables that will only reveal themselves in the fullness of time. 

ITTEFAQ NAMA

Meray aziz humwatno, I am planning a few days off the leash and sad to say, it can’t be in Bloved London. Why? Because Altaf bhai is there and coast is not clear, hain ji. He has been howling to me on phone, after consuming several liters of Rooh Afza. What I can do, hain ji? General Raheel and his buoys are determined to clean up the mass that MQM has made Karachi. Crime has to be separated from politics, they keep saying. I told Altaf Bhai, “please to wait until end of General Raheel’s term. As you know, army’s policies change with army chief. Look at nice time you had with Musharraf and Kayani. They looked the other way while you and your murderous thugs went on a decade-long killing spree and army chiefs before that too, except General Asif Nawaz.”
But Altaf is concerned about here and now. As you can see, my gormint is not supporting generals in clean up, except for Chory Nisar. Why? Because we know Punjab can be next. And if MQM declines in Karachi, Imran Khan will reap benefit. And finally, as Asif Zardari says, buds of feather must stuck together.

In meeting in PM’s House drawing room, which is size of Lahore Railway Station, I assembled my team and asked them what is to be done about Altaf Bhai and MQM. Everybody’s dental work was on display until I infarmed them that same to same can happen to us. OK, we are not mass murderers in Punjab but there is a profitable syndicate doing good business in various shapes and farms (here I got huge elbow in ribs from Shbaz Saab sitting beside me) ….
Then Shbaz Saab went into huge sulk and despite my several efforts to establish cordial relations, kept stony silence. I kept smiling at him and he kept looking at the peacocks and gazelles in the garden. “Why you are looking at the animals outside when I am inside, hain ji?” I asked. Still no response. Finally I sighed and said to bera, “Open the window. Let the airforce in.”

Courtesy TFT 

SENATE ELECTIONS, POLITICIANS & HORSE TRADING!

As the upcoming Senate elections draw near (to be held on February 5, 2015), the government’s struggle to prevent horse-trading, possibly through constitutional reform, as well as the arguments of political parties on how a policy shift (if any) is going to take place are becoming increasingly tenacious. The two committees formed by Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif, consisting of top politicians and legal advisors, are in talks with the leaders of the main political parties and have already drafted the proposed 22nd amendment to the constitution. They proposed a shift from secret ballots to open ones in Article 226 and amending the language of Article 59 to state that senators are “chosen” indirectly and not elected. The suggested reforms included making the disqualification of Members of Parliament (MPs) in case of defection from or lack of allegiance to their political party applicable to the way they vote in the Senate elections as well. After disagreement from other parties, the Pakistan Muslim League N (PML-N) is considering an All Parties’ Conference (APC) to garner support for this amendment, as suggested by Asif Zardari.

Although Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf(PTI) Chairman Imran Khan supports this change, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the JamiatUlema-e-Islam F (JUI-F) have expressed their concerns. JUI-F chiefMaulanaFazlur Rehman has not committed to supporting the bill. He has voiced his reservations about a 22nd amendment when his concerns about the 21st amendment, which he believes singles out religious groups as the proponents of terror in Pakistan, have not been addressed. PPP Vice President Sherry Rehman has also opposed the shift to open ballots and Leader of the Opposition SyedKhursheed Shah has even suggested that the elections should be held by direct voting, allowing the people of the provinces to choose their representatives to prevent manipulation, monetary or other. Rehman and Shah both asserted that once the election schedule has been announced, it is completely unprecedented to change the existing electoral procedure. The PM’s committees’ drive to change the way the constitution terms senators as “elected” representatives to “chosen” ones attempts to rule out the possibility of direct elections.

At this point in the talks, it is not certain whether asserting the clarity of the indirect nature of the elections and switching to open ballots or changing the electoral policy to direct elections is the right direction for the Senate selection process to take. Since the elections are scheduled to be held next week, there is hardly sufficient time for all the parties to achieve a consensus regarding the best way in which to ensure transparency. The short timeline for any policy changes before the elections, which are set to be held on March 5, begs the question why the PML-N government is so adamant in pushing this hastily drafted constitutional amendment through. PML-N MPAs have shown resentment towards the party’s extremely centralised control and the fact that their opinions and concerns are not duly heard by the party leaders, particularly in Balochistan but also in Punjab. PTI representatives in Khyber Pakhtunkhwaon the other hand have formed a 14-member dissident group. This internal discord makes both parties susceptible to the manipulation of their estranged MPAs and explains the PML-N’s thrust to institute an electoral procedural shift and PTI’s uncharacteristic support of the ruling party. However, it will prove difficult for the PML-N leaders to gather enough support for their proposed constitutional amendment, whether they succeed in holding an APC or not, in just nine days before the elections. Nevertheless, these talks should be encouraged and if constitutional reform is to take place, it must broach the problems that have plagued the election process in the past and could cause concern in the future. The purpose of the Senate, with equal representation from each province, is to balance out the inordinate strength of Punjab. Therefore, reforms should be geared towards ensuring fair and transparent representation of the provinces in the Senate and further strengthening it in the long run. 

Courtesy Daily Times