I believe strongly in the rights of
women... my mother is a woman, my sister is a woman, my daughter is a woman, my
wife is a woman. - King Abdullah
of Saudi Arabia
In an unprecedented major move,
Saudi King Salman has reshuffled the deck at the apex of the Kingdom’s power
structure. The reshuffle has replaced Prince Muqrin, chosen as Crown Prince by
the late King Abdullah before his death in January, with Interior Minister
Mohammed bin Nayef, and appointed his young son, Defence Minister Mohammed bin
Salman as the Deputy Crown Prince, or second in line of succession. Both men
are relatively younger than the past octogenarian successors to the Kingdom’s
founder King Abdulaziz al-Saud, comprising the generation of his (many) sons.
That tradition gave Saudi Arabia five kings from amongst al-Saud’s sons. This
reshuffle represents the transition to a new generation. Prince Mohammed bin
Nayef, the new Crown Prince, is the first grandson of founder King al-Saud.
Given that Nayef is 55 and Mohammed bin Salman is just 30, the announcement
appears to have settled the succession issue for decades to come.
Not only
that, power at the apex of the Saudi hierarchy now appears to be concentrated
in the hands of the two Princes under King Salman. Their rise to power is seen
to signal a tougher stance on foreign policy and continuing to keep the lid on
domestic dissent. Prince Nayef has been Interior Minister since 2012,
succeeding his father in that position. Al Qaeda paid him the ultimate
compliment as a formidable enemy when they tried to assassinate him in 2009
when he was security chief. He escaped that attack and is seen as tough on
internal dissent or attempts to subvert Saudi rule. Saudi Arabia clearly has an
eye on the unprecedented turmoil roiling the region, with external challenges
such as the intervention in Yemen and internal issues emanating from religious
extremists’ attempts to overthrow Saudi rule in the past.
The latest avatar of
such extremists, Islamic State (IS), is said to be operating on Saudi soil.
Recently, Riyadh announced it arrested 93 people suspected of being IS
operatives. The tougher foreign policy of course is centred on the perceived
growing Iranian influence in the region. In the Yemen context, the refusal of
Pakistan to get involved militarily in the Saudi campaign, which has caused so
much heartburn in Riyadh as well as other Gulf Cooperation Council allies, has
now been translated into Pakistan offering humanitarian assistance for Yemen.
Whether this will get Islamabad off the hook with Riyadh, only time will tell.
Apart from these two changes at the
top, veteran Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal has been sidelined in
favour of Saudi ambassador to Washington Adel al-Jubeir, the first non-royal to
hold the post. Even the head of the state oil firm Aramco has been shifted to
Health Minister. His successor is awaited with bated breath by the oil markets,
given Saudi Arabia’s pre-eminent position as the world’s largest oil exporter.
All these changes presage a more confrontational foreign policy, with Yemen as
the testing ground of the new direction. Prince Mohammed bin Salman has led the
aerial foray into Yemen against the Houthis but seems to have come up against
the fact that mere air power cannot defeat the rebels. After Pakistan excusing
itself, Saudi Arabia is now training tribesmen to fight the Houthis in a new
proxy ground war that could escalate the conflict, possibly even over the
border into Saudi Arabia itself.
The new Saudi assertiveness may also be a ploy
to divert attention from domestic tensions emanating not only from the
extremist threat, but also the inherent contradiction between conservatives and
modern young people who are dying for change. Unemployment amongst even the
educated young is high and could become a destabilising factor in future. The
transition may have settled the Saudi succession for the foreseeable future in
an effort to ensure stability and smooth changes, but the concentration of
power in the apex triumvirate and the more aggressive policeman’s role being
assumed by Riyadh in the region is a risky enterprise fraught with many
imponderables that will only reveal themselves in the fullness of time.
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