AFTER THE PHONE CALL ...!

SPY WHO 'LOVED' ME

If the reports on the issue are critically scrutinised, it looks like a staring down contest between the intelligence agencies of Pakistan and the US has begun. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chiefs, Leon Panetta and General Ahmad Shuja Pasha have spoken on the phone and the ISI has asked that information be given to it about all CIA operatives in Pakistan. It seems that the Raymond Davis affair has given way to something bigger, more substantial, and more beneficial for the security agencies of Pakistan.

The intelligence agencies of Pakistan have a few ideas of their own that they may feel might just get sorted out by the debacle that is the Raymond Davis fiasco. It is no secret that the US has persistently pressurised Pakistan for some time to relax its visa-processing regime for its citizens. Reports in the media have asserted that this request was acceded to by the government without proper security clearance and that visas were issued en masse starting from July last year. The reports imply that the security and intelligence agencies were bypassed for this purpose. If for the sake of argument (although US complaints of delayed visas have not abated) the assertion is accepted, it implies that either the security and intelligence agencies failed to insist on proper clearance or the government was able to circumvent well laid down and long established procedures for the purpose. Both arguments seem incredible as they imply a breakdown in government procedures, an assertion for which there is no proof except the (seemingly motivated) reports in the less responsible sections of our media. So what is the truth?

Our intelligence and security agencies are known to be less than well pleased with the efforts of the civilian democratically elected government to forge ties between the US and Pakistan that rely more on the political government rather than the older Musharraf-era conduit of the intelligence and security agencies. For the latter, the villain of the piece is our Ambassador to the US, Husain Haqqani, who has been accused of responsibility for ‘unleashing’ the Raymond Davis brigade inside Pakistan. Now while this, and his alleged responsibility for the critical sections of the Kerry-Lugar Act regarding civil-military relations may be enough to earn him the ire of Pakistan’s intelligence agencies, it exaggerates the role of the Ambassador and depreciates the way the US’s system works. It is very difficult to believe that anything manages to escape the careful watch of our intelligence agencies. Even if the civilian government has expedited visa issuance for US citizens (although the evidence does not support this contention), there is hardly a chance that these visas are granted without some measure of scrutiny by the establishment. However, it may be that this scrutiny has not been up to par, partly because the US and the CIA’s covert operatives had better covers than our spooks could detect. If this is so, it is hugely embarrassing for our redoubtable agencies. The Raymond Davis affair may just have handed Pakistan’s security agencies a convenient leverage to roll back any suggestion of a ‘liberalised’ visa regime and wrest complete control of it from the civilian government.

Davis may have sent the relationship between the two countries spiralling to new lows but the fact remains that there is a bigger picture at hand. While the whole affair may have given our security agencies more leverage to demand details of CIA operatives working within Pakistan, it may also have given them a bargaining chip in the greater game. It is well known that differences exist between Pakistan and the US, and the intelligence agencies of both, on the war on terror and the fact that Pakistan has given safe havens to the Afghan Taliban, its proxies for the approaching endgame in Afghanistan. This has restricted the civilian government’s say and leg-room to manoeuvre.

The Raymond Davis saga may just provide the security agencies of Pakistan with enough sway to ensure that, after the looming US withdrawal from Afghanistan by 2014, Pakistan has its finger in the proverbial pie with its Afghan Taliban proxies sitting comfortably at the Afghan table.

POLITICAL DIVORCE BETWEEN PML-N & PPP IN PUNJAB- a bad decision?

Addressing a press conference in Lahore after a meeting of party members over the fate of the Punjab coalition government, Nawaz Sharif announced a parting of the ways with the PPP and elaborated at length why PML-N decided to embrace dissident members of its splinter party PML-Q, which he had hitherto rebuffed and refused to shake hands with. He said the members who did not violate PML-N policy and had been ‘duped’ into joining the king’s party would be welcomed back into the parent party’s fold. Much as he tries to gloss over it, the fact remains that he is once again opening the doors to horse-trading and the politics of defection a la the decade of the 1990s.

The fate of the PML-Q Unification Bloc and, by implication PML-N, is in the hands of the Election Commission, which will decide whether or not the defection clause applies to this situation where a sizeable group has violated a party’s discipline. The PPP has announced its decision to sit on the opposition benches in Punjab, while not renouncing the politics of reconciliation. In fact, the joint team of PPP and PML-N reviewing the progress on the 10-point agenda termed it satisfactory and decided to continue cooperating on the issues on which consensus had been achieved. This is contrary to the impression Nawaz Sharif tried to give regarding the PPP’s failure to implement the agenda in the given timeframe of 45 days. This changing of gears by the PML-N is going to have short-term as well as long-term implications for the country.

It is not clear what are the calculations of the PML-N, because it will not be easy to unseat the federal government. If the mid-term elections do not happen anytime soon, it will add to the animosity between the two parties from hereon. For now, Punjab has already become a political battlefield. The change of Opposition leader after the PPP’s joining the opposition benches in Punjab will be the first test of the new relationship between the two parties that have now become rivals instead of partners.

It is reported that Chaudhry Zaheer of the PML-Q will resign from the Leader of the Opposition post to make way for a PPP member to assume this position, given its strength. The coming days will reveal whether this transition is smooth or not, and how the new relationship will unfold. However, the signs that a new political racket is going to start are unmistakable.

In the circumstances that Pakistan faces today, this is a regrettable development. It is going to have a direct impact on the political scene, where the two biggest parties that were working hand in hand to the detriment of extra-constitutional forces, will now be consuming their energies undermining each other. This will also affect other areas of national importance. Political wrangling will have an adverse impact on an already teetering economy and the war on terror. If the old tradition of criticism for the sake of criticism were revived, any reform undertaken by the government would be met with resistance by the opposition regardless of its merit. Already, the PPP has met failure in getting approval for the proposed wealth tax and Reformed General Sales Tax (RGST) from parliament due to a storm created by the opposition parties, including the PML-N, and even some coalition allies.

Also, the highly unpopular war on terror initiated by General Musharraf was given legitimacy by the across-the-board support of all the political parties. It is debatable how the divergence between the PML-N and the PPP is going to impact this war. This indecent burial of the Charter of Democracy is not something unexpected from the PML-N, but may prove detrimental to an already fragile democracy.

MONEY IS NOT EVERYTHING

Money cannot solve everything. It looks as if the richest monarchy in the Arab world and the largest global oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, may be getting jittery at the history-changing events developing across the Middle East. The ouster of decades’ long autocratic rule in Tunisia and Egypt and the wave of protests sweeping across Bahrain, Yemen and Libya have prodded Saudi Arabia into action to placate an ever-increasing disillusioned public.

Returning home after three months spent abroad for medical treatment, King Abdullah announced an extravagant aid package — to the tune of $ 35 billion — aimed at benefiting lower and middle income groups and unemployed youth, and addressing housing problems and high-inflation rates besetting the Saudi economy. This is an attempt by the Saudi monarchy to throw money at the problem as though that is all that is required. The Saudi monarchy is watching closely the rising stem of revolts in the Arab world, deeming it necessary to address issues before the people take to the streets of Saudi Arabia. As most of the reforms in the package aim to address the woes of the youth, it is quite obvious that the Saudi rulers have taken note of the fact that it is the tech-savvy youth demographic that is most active and passionate in the Arab protests.

The Libyan uprising has been reduced to an isolated, hate-spewing dictator watching his iron-clad grip quickly loosening in the face of angry protests and Yemen is seeing nine ministers resign from public office. Inspired by Tunisia and Egypt, the Arab public has finally decided that it has had enough of autocratic regimes, and no place epitomises a seemingly unshakeable monarchy like Saudi Arabia.

There have long been opponents of the Saudi regime but they have always been silenced by the kingdom’s repressive laws and policies. Many political opponents and underground groups have long demanded more gender equality, free elections to municipal councils, etc. However, for a theocracy like Saudi Arabia, introducing reforms that endanger the political-religious status quo will be out of the question. While this aid package is a premeditated move to curb any rising dissent within the kingdom, it must be asked: how far will doling out money go if it is not accompanied by freedom? Money can only go so far when the inhabitants of an oil-wealthy country are boiling over with frustration over the denial of their political, civil, human and gender rights.

GADDAFI is too 'MUAMMAR' for state affairs, believe Libyans

A defiant Muammar Gaddafi vowed on Tuesday to die ‘a martyr’ in Libya on state television. He further added that he would call the people to cleanse Libya house-by-house unless protesters surrendered. It is important to note here that this is the first time Gaddafi announced his stance publicly since the revolt broke out. Recently, a lot of rumours were flying that Gaddafi had fled; perhaps he thought that it was important to give a public appearance in order to refute all such rumours.

Nevertheless, it is evident that Gaddafi’s regime is crumbling: at least seven Libyan ambassadors are no longer supporting him; his justice minister has resigned; the staff of Libya’s mission to the UN has declared allegiance to the people of Libya; two senior air force fighter pilots defected and flew their jets to Malta when asked to attack protesters. Even his soldiers have turned against him after the people came out on the streets demanding regime change after over four decades of his rule. Moreover, Gaddafi has virtually lost all his strength in the eastern coast and therefore resorted to the oldest trick in the dictator’s book — a brutal crackdown on protesters. On Monday, pro-regime militiamen shot on sight anyone found in the streets and opened fire from speeding vehicles at people watching from the windows of their homes. Almost 62 civilian casualties have been reported in Tripoli in the last two days.

The problem with Gaddafi, like most other dictators who have been in power for a long time, is that they never read the writing on the wall. The thought of giving up never crosses their mind. So much so that they do not even hesitate to massacre their people to prolong their rule. The UN Security Council held an emergency session, and western diplomats pushed it to demand an end to the retaliation against protesters. In addition, the French foreign minister, UN chief and UK foreign secretary strongly opposed the attacks on protesters. In the light of all this, it is becoming quite clear that Gaddafi will not be able to survive. Everyone is waiting for Gaddafi to realise this and spare himself and the people more trouble. The time has come!

TUM TO MUJHAY AZIZ HO 'NASWAAR' KI TARHA

Bahein galaay may daal kay kehta tha 'Raymond Khan'
'Tum to mujhay aziz ho Naswaar ki tarha"!

The United States government was unaware that Raymond Davis was hooked on ‘naswar,’ and in all probability he is now undergoing withdrawal symptoms, unless there is a friendly guard nearby to offer him some, or the jail doctors recommends weaning him away from what is a legal form of tobacco.

When the US Embassy was approached, they appeared unaware of Davis’s ‘desi’ addiction. Abrupt stopping of ‘naswar’ intake can be uncomfortable as junkies discover, if they are without their hourly ‘fix’. Withdrawal symptoms include headache and anxiety and anger.

According to a Bannu shopkeeper, the price of one packet of Bannu Naswar is Rs7. “One packet is enough for thirty pinches of ‘naswar.’

According to the challan by the city police in Lahore, a packet of ‘naswar’, was also recovered from Davis’s car, amongst other personal and lethal items that an undercover agent on active duty is expected to have with him at all times. US troops stationed inside Afghanistan are known to enjoy ‘naswar’ and have become hooked to it. Davis in all probability must have picked up the habit during his long stays in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It also reflects on the company he was keeping at the time. The problem of ‘naswar’ like chewing ‘pan’ is that one has to spit it out after a while.

Whether the Americans including Davis have found a socially correct way to deal with this aspect is unknown or did he spit it out of his car window?

According to Wikipedia, ‘naswar is held in the mouth for 10 to 15 minutes. If it is chewed it produces a bad taste in the mouth. Usually, the consumption varies but mostly people take it on an hourly basis.’ It is primarily used in Central Asia, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Sweden and India.

“Once I was sitting next to a Norwegian at a meeting in Europe and was surprised to see him enjoying ‘naswar’”, a Pakistani diplomat told The News. It is predominantly used by members of the Pashtun ethnic groups. Nowadays people of other regions i.e. Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan also use it and the number of addict people is increasing day by day.

Some of the great varieties of naswar are found in different parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in Pakistan, but Bannu is especially famous for it. There are different brands of ‘naswar’ in the provinces such as “Toor Khamar”, “Missile”, “Safarish Khan”, “Lucky” etc. Toor Khamar ‘naswar’ is prepared in Shahbaz Garhi, Pakhtoonkhwah, while Safarish Khan and Lucky are prepared in Havelian, Pakhtoonkhwah and Abbottabad, Hazara Division, Pakhtoonkhwah.

The News received telephone calls from the Fata area, and two calls from Waziristan when this correspondent had in an international Pushto programme, mentioned Davis’s love for ‘naswar’. “This is the only good thing we have heard about this American killer. We are glad that he has picked up this healthy habit from his Pushtun friends and acquaintances,” said a gentleman who identified himself as Wazir Khan.

Some of Khan’s friends had this to say, “So much attention is being given to three boys killed in Lahore by an American. What about the Pakhtuns who are being killed like flies by US drones? What will it take to get kind of worldwide attention?”

Courtesy Mariana Babar, The News

LAHORE SHOOTINGS- UN ANSWERED QUESTIONS!

A court in Pakistan has delayed a hearing to decide whether an American who shot dead two men in Lahore last month has diplomatic immunity. The arrest of Raymond Davis has severely damaged relations between the countries. Much of the detail in the case remains unclear - the BBC's Syed Shoaib Hasan looks at some of the unanswered questions.

Is Raymond Davis a diplomat?

If you are thinking of a suavely dressed man in a three-piece suit who holds meetings with local officials to further or broaden his country's agenda, you would be wrong. Mr Davis was definitely not employed for his diplomatic skills - he is more a "hands-on" person, working in what the US embassy says is its "administrative and technical affairs section". Reports from the US say he is a former special forces soldier who left the military in 2003 and is working for the US embassy in Pakistan. As such, the US insists he is covered by the Vienna Convention which guarantees immunity from prosecution for all diplomatic staff.

Could he be a spy?

Many Pakistanis believe he is - there seem few other credible explanations as to why he was going around Lahore with a Glock pistol in a car with local number plates without informing local authorities. It is a requirement for embassy staff - especially those from Western embassies - to inform local police of their movements, simply because they are prime targets for militants in Pakistan. Mr Davis's department in the US embassy is widely seen in Pakistan as a cover for Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) operations. Mr Davis himself said he was a consultant employed by the US government. Researchers in the US say that since leaving the military, Mr Davis worked for a security firm called Hyperion LLC. But subsequent investigations by the US media have now shown that Hyperion exists only as a website. The offices that the company says it has in Orlando have been vacant for several years and the numbers on its website are unlisted. Mr Davis insists he was acting in self-defence.

Can Mr Davis be convicted for the murders?

Maybe. It all depends on how eager the Pakistani authorities are to punish him. The fact that he is possibly a spy does not mean he is not covered by diplomatic immunity. It is common practice for intelligence services across the world to send operatives under the cover of assignments to embassies. Both Pakistani and US "diplomats" have been caught in such situations - and every time have been asked to leave the host country immediately with no possibility of a return. That is the maximum punishment that has been levied in the overwhelming majority of cases in countries which have signed the Vienna Convention. However, in some countries there are exceptions for serious offences committed, such as murder. Pakistan is one of those countries. The matter is now in the hands of the judiciary. But it is important to remember that Mr Davis has been charged with murder - the maximum sentence here is the death penalty.

Should Mr Davis have been carrying a gun?

Legally speaking, only Pakistani citizens with licences issued by the interior ministry are allowed to carry arms. No foreigner is allowed to carry arms, except soldiers or guards within the premises of an embassy. Both Pakistani nationals and foreigners caught carrying arms can be charged under a Pakistani criminal law which stipulates a jail term of six months to two years in addition to a fine. Mr Davis has also been charged under this law. Matters were further inflamed by the suicide of the widow of one of the men killed by Mr Davis.

Was he acting in self-defence?

That was the initial plea made by Mr Davis and the US embassy. However, subsequent investigations by the police, forensic labs and the local and international media suggest that the two men were driving away from Mr Davis when they were shot. In February Lahore's police chief said that Mr Davis was guilty of "cold-blooded murder" - he said that no fingerprints had been uncovered on the triggers of the pistols found on the bodies of the two men. Furthermore he said that tests had shown that the bullets remained in the magazines of their guns, not the chambers, suggesting they weren't about to shoot him. On the face of it, this leaves Mr Davis's claim that they were robbers - with one even apparently cocking a gun at his head - looking very thin. In addition, police say ballistics evidence shows that the pair were shot in the back - which again suggests they were moving away from Mr Davis, rather than about to attack him.

Who were the Pakistanis that Mr Davis shot?

In his initial statement, Mr Davis said they were robbers who were trying to steal his valuables. He and the US embassy have maintained this story. However, the men have no criminal records as such. Both have been identified as residents of Lahore by the police. The pair were carrying licensed pistols - a fact which led many to believe they might indeed have been robbers. However, security sources in Lahore say that they were part-time or low-level operatives for the local intelligence services. Although reports are sketchy about what they were doing in relation to Mr Davis, security officials believe it could be the case of a surveillance operation gone horribly wrong. Pakistani intelligence services routinely tail and monitor all embassy staff, Western or otherwise. A third man on his motorbike was killed in the incident by a mystery US car

What about the second car and its victim?

A side event to the main drama concerning Mr Davis was the fact a third man was also killed during the incident. He was an innocent bystander run over by a US embassy vehicle, which was initially said to have arrived to rescue Mr Davis. The fact that an embassy vehicle was able to get to the spot so quickly was a source of astonishment to anyone who is even vaguely aware of the geography of Lahore. Given the incident was over within minutes, it seems incredible that anyone could negotiate the 12km (7.4-mile) 40-minute drive in peak traffic in less than five minutes. But subsequent investigations have now shown that the second car - a Toyota Landcruiser - was with Mr Davis at the time of the incident. In fact, according to eyewitnesses, Mr Davis was leading and clearing the way for the Toyota when the incident took place. In the light of what happened afterwards, it seems Mr Davis was in "protective mode" and opened fire to "secure" whoever or whatever was in the Toyota - the interior of this vehicle was not visible as its windows were tinted. It is evident in local TV footage that the second vehicle is going away from Mr Davis at the time of the incident. As it disappears into the dust, Mr Davis calmly pulls over and gives himself up. Pakistani authorities have asked for the Landcruiser and its driver to be handed over - a request with which the US has yet to comply.

What about behind-the-scenes negotiations?

As well as public pressure, US officials have also privately warned Pakistan's government of far-reaching and severe consequences if Mr Davis is convicted. Unnamed US officials have also used the media to issue veiled warnings to Pakistan that diplomatic ties could be cut and all aid stopped. Despite Islamabad's public stance on Mr Davis, Pakistani officials are said to have privately assured Washington that he will eventually be released. However, public pressure means that at the moment this could lead to a massive anti-government backlash. Pakistan's Prime Minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani, has hinted that blood money could be paid to the families of the two men Mr Davis admits shooting, which could enable his release. There is speculation that US officials may try to establish contacts with the families in this regard. However, it is not clear that Mr Davis has been charged under laws which would allow blood money to be paid.

LONG LIVE PAK-US RELATIONS!

HIT-&-RUN KILLER REACHES BACK USA

An American driver and another person whose vehicle crushed a Pakistani motorcyclist to death in Lahore as they were rushing to the aid of Raymond Davis, who had committed double murder, have slipped out Pakistan and are back on American soil, a senior US official told an American television network.

The American sought for arrest after a court order, who the State Department only identified as a member of the US embassy’s staff in Islamabad, Pakistan, was behind the wheel when he struck and killed a bystander while speeding to the area where shooting took place. The driver of the vehicle held the same “diplomatic visa” as Davis, US officials told ABC News. Since his arrest, the US argued that Davis should be afforded diplomatic immunity as a member of the embassy’s “technical and administrative staff” and released.

Authorities in Punjab said they sent five letters to the US Embassy asking that the driver and vehicle be handed over, but have reportedly received no response. It is unclear when the driver and his passenger were spirited out of Pakistan, but a senior US official said it happened soon after the shooting incident, the report said.

Meanwhile, State Department spokesman Philip Crowley declined comments when asked whether the Americans sought by Pakistani authorities were still in Pakistan. “I’m not going to comment,” was all he said.